NHL betting guide: daily picks, odds, winning odds and advice

Welcome to the daily game odds page where you will find the odds of winning for each of the night games, as well as betting tips based on how those odds compare to the market chances. Game odds take into account each team’s strength (based on predicted rosters), home snow, and comfort. The expected strength of each team is based on the expected value of the players in its roster based on the Game Added Score Rating (GSVA). You can read more about the GSVA and the model here.

This page will be updated every morning between 10:00 AM and 12:00 PM

For those unfamiliar with betting, I wrote a guide a few years ago that still stands. It summarizes the basic tricks of the trade and I urge you to read on. Although model picks have been profitable in the past, there is no guarantee that they will always be profitable – please don’t bet any money you don’t feel comfortable losing.

For the optimal betting strategy, I recommend plugging each probability in the Kelly Criterion calculator into a Kelly multiplier of 0.35 (full Kelly is a bit too aggressive for a different sport like hockey). Recommended bet sizes will be included to make life easier for some of you, but these sizes will be based on Bet MGM lines at the time of publication. If you see a different line The Kelly Criterion calculator linked above is still the perfect solution.

Last update: May 14, 2022, 9:45 AM ET

betting tips

With a bit of a cold for the past couple of days… I really hope this doesn’t last tonight.

  • Toronto (-128, 1.78) – 4.7 percent: Excuse me. I beg you. Just win.

Last night

betting tips

Tough night, boy. The Leafs play well, but fail to get rid of them. Wild…of…that was cruel. There are still strong qualifiers overall, but it was nice to get those two. Only one play tonight (I don’t want to be in the stars, but I’ll consider it if it hits +145 range).

  • Pittsburgh (+105, 2.05) – 2.5 percent: Even without Sidney Crosby I have an advantage over the penguins in the house. There is a chance that he will play, but I seriously doubt it. I’m at -126 if he does. The most plausible scenario would be for Tristan Gary to start this series for the first time, a move that would lead us to -136 (the rangers generally change the odds more, especially when it comes to more of a third series option like Domingue).

first round

A very massive season-ending night that gets us up to +20 units a year. It was an absolute rollercoaster that got there, but we’ll take it. Maybe next year we’ll be heading into modernity soon.

There’s no advantage in today’s single game, but it’s a good time to talk about the playoffs starting tomorrow. Futures and Series pricing is the name of the game here and here’s what I recommend based on the model.

Futures bets

To win the Stanley Cup

I’ve divided Kelly’s usual share by three here.

  • Colorado +325-1%: I am very high in Colorado and have team job prospects at +233. There is value on the favourites, but we’ll see if a hockey match makes that difficult.
  • Florida +550 – 1 percent: Betting on the two preferred options is very square, but both lines look short. I have Florida at +339.
  • Toronto +1000 – 0.3 percent: I don’t have a bet on the Leafs to win the Cup, but I will at that price. Other markets are closer to +700. I’m at +725.
  • Minnesota +1800 – 0.3 percent:

To win the conference

I’ve divided Kelly’s usual share by three here. Not surprisingly, they are the same difference. You can dip twice here, or go with one of them (especially for teams like the Wild or the Leafs who will be underdogs in the final against Florida and Colorado respectively, if those teams make it).

  • Colorado +130 – 1.3 percent: I think this is close to 50/50, so getting the extra money is good value even if it’s not a huge return.
  • Florida +275 – 1.5 percent: The East is a fierce battle, but the Panthers are the favorites in that fight and have a more shaky trajectory than Toronto, Tampa Bay, Boston or the Carolinas. The first round match against Washington helped her odds a lot.
  • Toronto +450 – 0.5 percent: I’m at +360 as there is this in other markets. bad line.
  • Minnesota +750 – 0.8 percent:

first round

Again, reduce the stakes here to a third as there will be daily bets on the game. But there are still some decent edges. These are all prices for the series.

  • Minnesota (-165, 1.61) – 3.5 percent:
  • Florida 4-0 (+550, 6.50) – 0.8 percent:
  • Florida -2.5 (+140, 2.40) – 1.5 percent:
  • Toronto (-120, 1.83) – 1.9 percent: I’m at -164 from Toronto. #LeafsBias Never fail.
  • Colorado 4-0 (+400, 5.00) – 1.3 percent:
  • Colorado -2.5 (+105, 2.05) – 5.0 percent:

Record keeping

2021-22 record

Regular season: 201-182, 20.1 units, 5.3 percent ROI

Closeout: 13-10, 3.1 units, 11.5% ROI

Futures: 2-5, 1.7 units

betstamp profile (2020-21 score does not reflect stake size which is why there is a discrepancy between what was published in last year’s betting guide)

2020-21 Betting Guide with Record

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