For a team with a solid 39-30 record that FanGraphs offer a 94.2% chance of making the playoffs, the Toronto Blue Jays have been insanely inconsistent.
Early this year the squad that dealt brutally with rival bowlers fell silent in 2021, but the club has managed to get off to a surprisingly good start thanks to an abundance of wins. That held them for a few weeks until they suddenly had the deadliest attack in baseball, resulting in a 15-5 sprint between May 24 and June 15.
They have now won only three of their last nine matches.
This team was hard to spot, which made it hard to bet on it this season. Fortunately for the blue Jays bettors, there was one safe harbor amidst stormy, unpredictable seas: Alec Manoah.
Blue Jays Betting Trends
If there is one player in Toronto that can be counted on right now it is Manoah. The big right-hander has an ERA of £2.00, and his elite run funnel has helped shaped the majority of the games he’s been involved in.
The Blue Jays are 9-4 when they take the hill – with an under-hit on 10 occasions – and are allowed more than two earned rounds only twice. If you support Blue Jays and under every Manoah start this year, you will get a good profit. In terms of his prop markets, even the bottom of his strikes have been consistent lately with Manoah producing five or fewer hits in six of his last eight rounds.
One of the reasons a sophomore can make such a huge impact on games is their ability to stack roles. Manouh has played at least five rounds in all 13 matches this year and has played six or more games in 11 of them (84.6%).
When you bet on the start of Manoah, you can be confident that he will be the primary driver of results. This worked well for Toronto given that it kept running off the board like clockwork:
Unlike Manoah, the Blue Jays’ remaining spin was typical of fluctuations.
Just a week ago, the Prius seemed to put his early season fears behind him and redefine the level of play that has made him one of the top marksmen in MLS in recent seasons. After a brutal outing against the Chicago White Sox, it looks like the right-handed man is back on the drawing board.
The Blue Jays signed the Berrios for a $131 million off-season extension assuming they were getting a reliable start. He’s been anything but in 2022, where he’s been performing chaotically from start to finish.
If we divide his fourteen walks into seven bi-beginning segments, it is easy to determine the periods of the tides:
|Period of time||outs at first||Strike at every start||era|
|1-2 . starts||8||2.5||11.81|
|3-4 . starts||19.5||5||2.08|
|Starting from 5 to 6||15.5||2.5||6.10|
|Starts from 7 to 8||18.5||4||3.65|
|Starts from 9 to 10||13||4||9.35|
|Starts from 11 to 12||22.5||9||1.80|
|From 13 to 14 years old||16.5||4.5||7.36|
He made more than 11 of his 14 starts and the Blue Jays won seven of those, which means his support for running (6.2 for all nine innings) has generally yielded positive results. It is impossible to count on moving forward.
The Prius’s fading as a pitcher is also suspect when its stuff isn’t dwindling significantly and has a K/9 of 9.35 in June after failing to generate a whiff earlier in the year. In all likelihood, he will find his footing at some point.
When Is anyone’s guess.
Overall, Gausman is having a solid season, and it seems wise to support him on most props (and Blue Jays in general) when he plays.
When you zoom in, things get more complicated. Toronto 7-7 when it starts, with sitting at 7-6-1. This is the definition of a mixed bag. The right-handed combination of swing and miss stuff, low gait rate, and home run suppression make him lead the fWAR majors, but reliable results didn’t always follow.
While the oversized .372 BABIP against it appears to be largely motivated by the poor defense behind it, there is a trend of hitters not chasing Gausman’s stuff as much as they did earlier in the year.
This is an important problem for a man whose signature tone – the spacer – is rarely found in the area of \u200b\u200bhit. Tuesday’s start saw him get 16 swings over 24 divisions, and seven total strokes (his highest total since May 24), but it’s hard to tell if he reversed hard.
Gausman’s talent calls for a bullish long-term betting position, but at the moment there is a surprising amount of uncertainty surrounding the right-hand side.
Read more: How to bet on Blue Jays
The one thing Kikuchi has consistently accomplished in 2022 is his failure to dig deeper into the games. southpaw has gone over 5.1 innings only twice in 13 attempts, giving the Blue Jays an average of 12.6 points per start.
The inability to delve deeper into the games has thrown the prop markets into chaos. The Kikuchi 4.94 ERA should make it capable of fading out on earned runs, but only allowed two ERs five times due to Blue Jays’ penchant for being airlifted out of any serious trouble. This seems like a trend to exploit, but it relies on the Toronto palliatives that erase inherited racers.
Kikuchi is also a good bet to miss the bat since he scored 10.04k/9 and produced only three rounds with fewer hits than the innings shown. Given that its overall roles are very difficult to predict, these numbers are not doable.
On the whole team level, the Blue Jays have a terrible start record for Kikuchi (4-9). But with the team’s offensive production ramping up, it feels a little dangerous in the tail.
Since Hyun-Jin Ryu’s injury pushed him to the starting five, Stripling has given Blue Jays 20.2 rounds of 1.31 ERA balls. In season, he has now racked up 50.2 tires of solid work with 3.08 ERA, 2.87 FIP and 3.63 xERA.
This is a far cry from what we’ve seen in recent seasons. Between 2020 and 2021, he scored 5.14 ERA with the third worst fWAR (0.0) out of 104 shooters thrown at least 150 rounds during that period.
Stripling doesn’t have flashy speed or a dynamite-breaking ball, and he had 46 strokes in a Blue Jays spin last year that saw him post a 2.35 ERA.
To his credit he’s changed the playing field in a big way this year, so there’s something substantial behind his newfound success.
However, it seems more likely that Stripling’s latest play is a hot streak rather than a career renaissance. This makes things difficult from a betting perspective. It’s justified to support it based on its recent work, but you can also make an argument for fading it out because of its track record and its mediocre stuff.
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