NFL Week 3 betting notes

The third week housed nine underdogs in the house, which means that during three weeks, there were 23 underdogs in the house. That’s more than three weeks since the 1970 merger. The Underdogs have averaged an 8-5-1 ATS home run so far this season.

The biggest trend entering the third week so far has to do with the aggregate. The bottom has made a 68% cut-off this season, the highest under-percentage in two weeks since 1996. The bottom has gone 6-1 prime time this season, and has averaged 58% over the past three seasons.

Perhaps the most interesting sum is Tampa Bay, which hosts Tom Brady and pirate Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. The total is currently in the low forties. In four previous Rodgers-Brady meetings, the total was at least 53 each time with an average of 55.5. This is the highest overall average in any head-to-head quarterback match in the past 35 seasons (at least three matches).

A couple of streaks are on the line this week. The Carolina Panthers lost nine straight games, whether it was the Express or the ATS. This is one of the longest shy streaks in the Super Bowl era (done twice previously). Last week, they lost as the favorites to the New York Giants after being underdogs most days of the week. The Giants have now been underdogs in 16 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-5), Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET


  • The Steelers are 44-24-3 against spread like underdogs under coach Mike Tomlin (37-34 outright). Since Tomlin’s first season in 2007, the Steelers have been the only team to pass 0.500 as an underdog. Since 2018, Pittsburgh has had a 20-7-2 ATS as an underdog.

  • Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in its past six games as a favourite. In all, Brown is a 7-15 ATS as the favorite under coach Kevin Stefansky.

  • Cleveland is 1-11 ATS in the Division Games and 6-19 ATS in the Conference Games under Stefansky.

  • Over the past 10 seasons, the bottom team has been 48-28-1 in the Steelers’ road games.

  • This is the first time Pittsburgh has been an underdog in its first three games since 1992 (I started 3-0).

  • 94-67-3 shorter in prime-time games over the previous four seasons (.584), including 6-1 this season.

  • Favorite teams between 4-7 points are 2-11 ATS this season and 36-58 ATS since the start of last season (.383). The main favorites for 4-7 points are 16-37 ATS over the past two seasons (.302).


New Orleans Saints (-3) at the Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET


  • Carolina has lost nine straight games against the spread, and tied for the second longest streak by any team in the past 20 seasons, second only to the 2005-06 Oakland Raiders, who lost 10 in a row.

  • The Panthers have completely lost all nine of those games. Only two Super Bowl-era teams have lost 10 consecutive games both straight and the ATS – the 1981 Baltimore Colts and the 2005-06 Oakland Raiders, who lost exactly 10 games.

  • Since 2016, New Orleans has had a 35-15 ATS on the road (.700), the best mark in the NFL in that period. It’s 19-9 ATS as a favorite road back then.

  • Since 2015, New Orleans has been a 29-15 ATS against the band’s opponents. Since 2016, Carolina has had 12-24 ATS against the band’s opponents.

  • Since 2010, teams that are 0-2 are 46-29-1 ATS against teams that have previously won the match.


Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-2.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET


  • Chicago 3-0 ATS was the home favorite last season. It’s the second time Justin Fields has been the favorite in his thirteenth start in the NFL (1-0 ATS).

  • Houston is 2-0 ATS this season and 5-1 ATS in its past six games.

  • This is Davis Mills’ 14th professional start. He’s been at least a six-point underdog in each of his first 13 games up until this week.


Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET


  • Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS as a home underdog under head coach Frank Reich.

  • Indianapolis is 0-4 ATS in its past four games. QB Matt Ryan is 0-5-1 ATS in his last six games.

  • Kansas City is a 47-25-1 ATS on the road under coach Andy Reed (.653), the best mark in the NFL at the time.


Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at the Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET


  • Since Josh Allen’s second season (2019), Buffalo has had a 17-7-1 ATS on the road, the second-best mark in the NFL after Arizona.

  • Allen is 19-6-2 in the last 27 starts, including his 5-0-1 starts in his last six starts.

  • Tua Tagovailoa is a 14-8-1 ATS in his career, including a 9-3 ATS at home.

  • Buffalo have earned 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight games in the First Division. Miami has had a 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games in the First Division.

  • The current total of 53.5 is by far the highest of any Buffalo-Miami meeting in the previous 35 seasons (previous high: 48.5 made in 2021 and 1992).


Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET


  • Dan Campbell is the 11-3 ATS as head coach of the Lions as an underdog with at least four points.

  • Detroit has had 7-1 ATS in its past eight games.

  • Minnesota has covered the spread the past four favorites (1-0 this season).

  • Over the past 10 seasons, Minnesota has been the best 41-21-2 ATS in the league after losing (661).

  • Favorite teams between 4-7 points are 2-11 ATS this season and 36-58 ATS since the start of last season (.383). The main favorites for 4-7 points are 16-37 ATS over the past two seasons (.302).

  • The current total of 53.5 matches the highest of any game in Detroit in the past 35 seasons, which has occurred four times previously, most recently in 2020.


Baltimore Ravens (-3) at the New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET


  • Bill Belichick is a 15-5 ATS and 12-8 as an underdog at home with New England. Of the 46 coaches who will be home underdogs at least 20 times in the Super Bowl era, including the playoffs, his 15-5 ATS number is the best. Overall, Belichick is aged 51-27-1 ATS as an underdog with New Englanders.

  • Belichick is 6-1 ATS against Ravens coach John Harbaugh in the regular season (0-4 ATS in the playoffs).

  • Lamar Jackson is a 16-7-2 ATS in his road career.

  • Since 2019, Baltimore is 11-2-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3.


Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at the New York Jets, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET


  • Cincinnati is the third team 0-2 or worse in the past 25 seasons to be the favorite on the road with at least four points (the first since 2019 in Washington in Miami). The previous two are 2-0 straight and 1-1 ATS.

  • The Jets are 1-5 ATS in their past six games as a home underdog (0-6). The last time they won as an underdog was in Week 8 last season, when they upset Cincinnati as the underdog by 11.5 points.

  • Below 17-8 in coach Zack Taylor’s road games.

  • The Jets weigh 1-13 and 2-12 ATS in their previous matches on September 14th, despite winning last week.

  • Since 2010, teams that are 0-2 are 46-29-1 ATS against teams that have previously won the match.


Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET


  • Titans coach Mike Frabel is an 8-4 ATS and a home run, and he was 3-0 last season.

  • Since 2017, the Las Vegas 1-8-1 ATS has been a road favorite and a 1-5 since moving to Las Vegas.

  • The Las Vegas 1-6 ATS is a favorite since the start of last season.


Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders, Sunday 1 p.m. ET


  • Carson Wentz has had a 5-1 ATS in his past six games as an underdog.

  • Since 2016, Washington has had 6-12 ATS at home in class matches.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers (-7), Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET


  • Los Angeles covered nine consecutive meetings (since 2010).

  • Jacksonville has had 0-5 ATS in its past five games.

  • Previous Los Angeles games on September 8 were below the total.

  • QB Justin Herbert had 3-1 ATS as the home favorite with at least seven points.

  • QB Trevor Lawrence is 2-7 ATS down the road.

  • Favorite teams between 4-7 points are 2-11 ATS this season and 36-58 ATS since the start of last season (.383). The main favorites for 4-7 points are 16-37 ATS over the past two seasons (.302).


Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at the Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET


  • Rams coach Sean McVeigh is 10-1 against Arizona and ATS against Arizona, including the playoffs, and 6-1 for ATS against Cardinals coach Cliff Kingsbury.

  • Arizona is 19-9-1 ATS as a loser under Kingsbury, and has gone 7-1 ATS since the start of last season.

  • Los Angeles have had 1-4 ATS in their past five games as the favorite on the road.


Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-2), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET


  • Atlanta is 5-0 and the ATS is in road games under head coach Arthur Smith when he’s not at least seven points underdogs.

  • Seahawks coach Pete Carroll has had 15-4 ATS in the last 19 games without Russell Wilson.

  • QB Geno Smith has a 9-1 ATS in his last 10 starts and a 22-14 ATS in his career.


Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET


  • An over/under of 41 is currently restricted to the second lowest of any Aaron Rodgers start before December. Only a lower total came at the start of his first career in 2008. It’s the lowest Sept/October start total for Tom Brady since 2010. In four previous meetings between Brady and Rodgers, the over/under has been at least 53 each time with an average of 55.5 , which is the highest average of any quarterback head-to-head game in the past 35 seasons.

  • Brady is a 3-1 ATS against Rodgers, covering the past three encounters (including the playoffs). Less than 3-1 in matches.

  • Green Bay earned a 33-18 ATS (.647) under coach Matt LaFleur, the best mark in the NFL at the time. Brady was a 188-124-6 ATS (.602) in his career, the second-best mark in the Super Bowl era among 89 quarterbacks to start 100.

  • Green Bay is 9-3 ATS as a valet under LaFleur, including 4-1 ATS since the start of last season.

  • Green Bay has had 0-4 ATS in its past four games.

  • Tampa Bay has covered four straight games when the streak is between +3 and -3.

  • Tampa Bay has had an 8-2 ATS in its past 10 games as a home favorite and a 6-1 ATS in its last seven games in this round.


San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Denver Broncos, Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET


  • The lookahead line was Denver -3. It opened at 2.5 after Sunday’s games (when Tre Lance was injured), and now it’s a San Francisco favourite.

  • QB Jimmy Garoppolo is 13-16-2 ATS as a favorite and 13-3 ATS as a server.

  • Niners coach Kyle Shanahan is a 15-24-2 ATS favorite.

  • She has covered Denver three times in a row as a home underdog. Since the 1970 merger, Denver 55-32-2 ATS has been designated as an underdog. QB Russell Wilson is 7-3 ATS as a valet at home.

  • Shanahan 13-7-1 ATS in games without conferences.

  • Below is 94-67-3 in prime-time games over the past four seasons (.584), including 6-1 this season. Over the past three seasons, the Underdogs have averaged 27-19 ATS at home in prime time games.


Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-2.5), Monday 8:15 p.m. ET


  • Last season, Dallas had 8-1 ATS on the road, 6-0 ATS in division games and 4-0 ATS with extra rest.

  • Dallas is 8-2 ATS against New York since 2017.

  • Copper Rush is 2-0 as a starting player in his career, both with at least four points.

  • New York are favorites 0-3 ATS since 2020 and 4-10-1 ATs in their last 15 games as favorites. Last week, the Giants closed as an underdog after being favored for most of the week against the Carolinas.

  • Below is 94-67-3 in prime-time games over the past four seasons (.584), including 6-1 this season.

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