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All game lines via VSiN NBA odds page
Market report for Tuesday, November 22nd
* Indicates that the team is in the second phase of a consecutive match
** The lines are opening numbers
Record: 15-25 | Units: -10.31 | ROI: -27.12%
Brooklyn Nets (-7, 217.5) at the Philadelphia 76ers
Joel Embiid, James Harden, and Therese Maxie are all out in Philadelphia tonight, and even against a Brooklyn defense it’s hard to see how the 76ers put together an effective scoring effort tonight. The betting market has rightfully bumped this Brooklyn streak to a -8 consensus, and the total is up to 218.5 at most stores. Kyrie Irving returned to the court for the Nets, and while he added only 14 points on Sunday against Memphis, it was clear that his presence separated the court even more for Brooklyn. From a side or aggregate perspective, those numbers have already been tightened, but from a player support point of view, there’s an interesting angle. Quietly, Ben Simmons is starting to feel comfortable with his role in Brooklyn. He’s had double-digit efforts in his last three games, and averaged 29.6 points, rebounds and an assist per game over that stretch. Tonight, that show’s total is set at 21.5 in most stores and is basically its season average. What if Simmons really starts to find his groove? Obviously, that line doesn’t account for potential improvement, so I’d bet it’s steady improving and that line is pretty low.
game: [1.09u] Ben Simmons over 21.5 points + REB + AST (-120)
Best bet summary
[1.09u] Ben Simmons over 21.5 points + REB + AST (-120)
Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies (-2, 234)
Memphis’ injury report looks less daunting than it did on Sunday when it faced Brooklyn. Jaren Jackson Jr. will be back after a night off, and Ja Morant was actually upgraded to questionable yesterday despite being considered week after week with an ankle injury. The potential availability of Morant throws this entire game on its head from an ante standpoint. If Morant plays in some way, these games will end with the Grizzlies as MVP. Until that happens, the Kings deserve to be favored here. Sacramento may have failed to cover against Detroit on Sunday, but this team has an 11-4 ATS and covers an average of 4.3 points per game. Their offense seems to match well with their opponents tonight, too. Memphis’ philosophy of prioritizing edge defense while allowing three-point attempts aligns with Sacramento which attempted 39.9% of its shots from the perimeter while shooting 37.7%. Since Morant has the potential to play tonight, I think it would be unwise to get involved in advance. The market has swung in favor of the Kings and the total has dropped to 232, both of which indicate Morant is unavailable, but crazier things have happened in terms of player availability.
Detroit Pistons at Denver Nuggets (-8, 224)
It looks like the seat battle will take place in Denver tonight, as both teams come into this game with a series of absences. Detroit will be without Kid Cunningham and Bey’s friend again, Denver’s Nikola Jokic and Jamaal Murray are both listed as questionable while Aaron Gordon and Ish Smith both carry questionable marks tonight. What makes things even more complicated is the fact that both Jokic and Murray are in health and safety protocol, which means they can be activated at any time, and if they do, that line will go back to the Nuggets. As of this morning, that streak is down to a consensus of -5.5 but if Jokic or Murray plays, this will get close to the opening number again. In the three games without Jokic, the Nuggets have gone 1-2 from SU and ATS with an offensive rating of 105.3. He is arguably the most valuable player from a points distribution perspective, and even if there is even a small chance of playing it, it makes a game like this unplayable until his status is confirmed in my opinion.
Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns (-7, 227.5)
LeBron James is still listed as questionable due to a groin injury that has caused him to miss the last four games. One would assume that his prolonged absence meant the curtains in Los Angeles, but that was not the case. The Lakers have gone 3-1 SU/2-1-1 ATS in those four games, and their offense has broken out for 121.1 points per 100 possessions. The driving force behind this run is Anthony Davis, who has averaged 32.3 points and 16.5 rebounds per game on shooting 58.4% from the floor since James was injured. Having said that, this series includes games against San Antonio, Detroit, and Brooklyn. Phoenix is clearly a different challenge, though, as the team is still dealing with injuries to Chris Paul and Cameron Johnson. As pointed out in a previous column, since Paul’s injury, the Suns defense has actually declined, allowing 116.9 points per 100 possessions in the six games without him. They smoothed things out at home against New York on Sunday, so it will be interesting to see if that plays out again tonight, especially if James plays. Given James’ potential return, this streak hasn’t budged in the open, but if he does come out again, another big Davis night could be in store.