NBABet News – NBABet’s Top 4 Bets on Wednesday’s Games

Find out how Action Network’s betting analysts handle Wednesday night’s matches, including Clippers vs. Warriors.

Wednesday’s NBA games always load up, but tonight’s slate takes on even more significance with no games scheduled on Thanksgiving Day.

With 12 games on the slate and two national televised matches anchoring tonight’s action — Mavericks vs. Celtics (7:30 p.m. ET) and Clippers vs. Warriors (10 p.m. ET) — our crew has placed four bets for tonight’s games.

Check out our betting analysis and the best bets for Wednesday night below.

NBA odds and picks

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Indiana Pacers

pluck or pluck Timberwolves -1.5
the book Fandel
warning 7 p.m. ET
Television NBA League Pass

Chris Baker: The Indiana Pacers are being overrated here after winning five straight against terrible teams. Look at the teams they’ve played, you’ll notice that they’re all ranked fifth in the net-adjusted ranking except for the Toronto Raptors, who lost out to Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet. It should also be mentioned that two of their five wins came against the Orlando Magic who lost their leading scorer, Paolo Panchero.

This team is generally overrated right now, but I think the Timberwolves have some matching advantages that they can exploit as well. The Timberwolves should be able to find success against this porous Indiana defense.

Indiana has been playing good ball lately but it’s been relied mostly on their offense. Their defense still ranks 24th in the Modified Defensive Ratings despite playing the second easiest schedule for opposing offenses in both the Dunks and Threes. They have been particularly bad at edge defense because they allow the sixth highest edge rate in the NBA.

That’s a recipe for disaster against a big Minnesota offense that loves rim offense, and ranks sixth in rim rate itself. Another feature of wolves is their transitional defense. Minnesota’s defense ranks ninth in transmission rate and that’s huge when facing an Indiana offense that ranks third in transmission frequency.

This Indiana team wants to play fast, but when they are forced to play half court, they drop from 8th in points per 100 to 15th. So they are primarily a half-court offense, and I expect their offense to struggle against a Minnesota defense that ranks second in half-court defense allowing only 92 points per 100 possessions.

Trust the Timberwolves to extend their four-game winning streak on Thanksgiving Eve.

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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Indiana Pacers

pluck or pluck Pacers +2
the book Kings

Austin Wang: I’m on the other side of this match. The Pacers continue their stellar start this season with a 9-6 record and 10-5 ATS after being expected to be one of the worst teams in the league.

The Pacers are seventh in the offensive rankings and have recently moved it up, finishing in fifth place in their last five games. Their insult has been a well-oiled machine with the outstanding third-year Tyrese Haliburton running the show. Despite facing an easy schedule as Chris pointed out (twice Magic, Rockets, Hornets and injury riddled Raptors), I think they match well with Wolves.

The Pacers make 3 good shots – they are 4th in 3-point percentage (45.7% of all field goal attempts) and 10th in 3-point percentage (37.2%). Conversely, the Timberwolves are 23rd in 3-point percentage allowed opponents (36.6%). With the addition of Rudy Gobert, the paint is crowded with the greatest and the perimeter defense is suffering.

Also, the Pacers are excellent at going into transition with Halliburton leading the way. They are second in fast-break points allowed (17.4) while the Wolves are 21st in fast-break points allowed. The Wolves are adept at scoring in the paint, but the presence of Miles Turner has kept them first in opponent points allowed in the paint.

Wolves have had a poor run this season as they adjust to life with Gobert, but they are finding their footing with a four-game winning streak. Maybe they get it, but I see a lot of edges in favor of the Pacers.

Since 2016, home teams on Thanksgiving Eve have been 38-21-1 ATS (64.4%), per Killer Sports’ SDQL. I support the Pacers here as home underdogs.

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Chicago Bulls vs Milwaukee Bucks

pluck or pluck bucks – 6.5
the book Fandel
warning 8 p.m. ET
Television NBA League Pass

Corey Parson: So far this season, bets on home favorites have not been profitable for NBA bettors – 80-85-3 ATS (48%). Despite this, the Bucks excelled as home favorites. On the season, the Bucks are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS at home, and are the fourth-most winning team against the home spread in the NBA, according to Bet Labs.

FanDuel opened this game with the Bulls as the 7.5-point favorite, but that number dropped by a point overnight. The total opened at 218 and has since been wagered at 223. The overs have been cashed in 3 of the last 4 Bucks games.

The Bucks are on the chalk side tonight, but the truth is, they are better than the Bulls and should cover that number with no problem.

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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors

pluck or pluck Andrew Wiggins, fewer than 2.5 assists (-145)
the book points
warning 10 p.m. ET
Television ESPN

Tyler Schmidt: For the second time this season, the Warriors rested nearly all of their starters on the road against the Pelicans. They lost both games, but their most recent loss was by 45 points as they still had a sub-. 500 record at 8-10. With everyone else back, the Warriors are the nearly double-digit home favorites against the Clippers.

After securing a senior contract just before the season began, Andrew Wiggins produced an average of 18.4 points per game, while shooting career bests of 49.3% from the field and 41.9% from behind the arc. He also averages a career high 5.6 rebounds per game. Wiggins even increased his theft.

The main area where Wiggins continues to struggle is getting help. He averages 2.1 assists per game and hasn’t had three or more assists in seven straight games. This auxiliary prop on FanDuel seems like a great bet because our model has the expected Wiggins for 1.4 auxiliary, which is well below the auxiliary line.

The Clippers are without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, but they still have the second-highest defensive rating in the league (106.8), going into tonight’s games. They only allow 105.8 points and 22.8 assists per game, both of which rank in the top five defensively. Over the last seven games, Wiggins has averaged 4.7 assists potential, which ranks fifth for the Warriors.

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